Changes in cerebrovascular disease-related deaths and their location during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic placed an enormous strain on healthcare systems and raised concerns for delays in the management of patients with acute cerebrovascular events. In this study, we investigated cerebrovascular excess deaths in Japan. STUDY DESIGN: Vital mortality statistics from January 2012 to May 2022 were obtained from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. METHODS: Using quasi-Poisson regression models, we estimated the expected weekly number of cerebrovascular deaths in Japan from January 2020 through May 2022 by place of death. Estimates were calculated for deaths in all locations, as well as for deaths in hospitals, in geriatric health service facilities, and at home. The age subgroups of ≥75 and <75 years were also considered. Weeks with a statistically significant excess of cerebrovascular deaths were determined when the weekly number of observed deaths exceeded the upper bound of 97.5% prediction interval. RESULTS: Excess deaths were noted in June 2021 and became more pronounced from February 2022 onward. The trend was notable among those aged ≥75 years and for those who died in hospitals. With respect to the location of deaths, the excess was significant in geriatric health services facilities from April 2020 to June 2021, whereas no evidence of excess hospital deaths was observed during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Beginning in the late 2021, excess cerebrovascular deaths coincided with the spread of the Omicron variant and may be associated with increased healthcare burden. In 2020, COVID-19 altered the geography of cerebrovascular deaths, with fewer people dying in hospitals and more dying in geriatric health service facilities and at home.

Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021.

OBJECTIVES: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27. STUDY DESIGN: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021. METHODS: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval. RESULTS: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12-18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31-June 6 (excess deaths: 1431-2587; excess percentage: 5.95-10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.

The relationship between fever rate and telework implementation as a social distancing measure against the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: On March 28, the Japanese government decided on the "Basic Policies for Novel Coronavirus Disease Control" and called on the public to thoroughly implement social distancing measures (i.e., behavioral restrictions to limit the frequency and intensity of human contact), especially telework. METHODS: We used population-level questionnaire data from a social networking service (SNS), with 275,560 respondents from March 5 to April 6, to evaluate the relationship between telework implementation and the presence of a fever (body temperature higher than 37.5 °C) within 1 month as a surrogate indicator of COVID-19 infection, by occupation type and age-group. RESULTS: Among company employees, statistical significance was identified in the 15- to 29-year and 30- to 59-year age-groups, showing higher fever rates in the non-teleworker group (for the 15- to 29-year age-group, non-teleworkers: 7.64%; teleworkers: 6.45%; P = 0.02; for the 30- to 59-year age-group, non-teleworkers: 3.46%; teleworkers: 3.14%; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Telework remains a controversial topic in Japan as the government called for emergency measures. Although caution is warranted in interpreting our findings because our data are limited to the voluntary SNS users, they will be essential to push forward with more measures to promote social distancing measures in the midst of Japan's current tense political climate.

Human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness within a cervical cancer screening programme: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of an HPV vaccination programme in reducing the risk of cervical abnormalities identified at subsequent screening. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using administrative health data. SETTING: General population of Ferrara Province, Italy. POPULATION: Female residents born in 1986-1993 and participating in the organized cervical screening programme in 2011-2018, who were eligible for HPV vaccination in catch-up cohorts. METHODS: Logistic regression to evaluate the potential association between abnormal cervical cytology and one, two, three or at least one dose of HPV vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cervical abnormalities, as predicted by low-grade or high-grade cytology, by number of vaccine doses, stratified by age. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 7785 women (mean age 27.5 years, SD 2.3). Overall, 391 (5.0%) were vaccinated with ≥1 dose and 893 (11.5%) had abnormal cytology. Women receiving at least one vaccine dose were significantly less likely to have an abnormal cytology (adjusted odds ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.34-0.79). Similar results were observed for women receiving a single dose, for both bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines, and applying buffer periods (excluding cytological outcomes within 1 month, 6 months and 1 year of the first dose). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of an organised cervical screening programme in Italy, catch-up HPV vaccination almost halved the risk of cytological abnormalities. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Among Ferrara women, vaccination against human papillomavirus halved the risk of screening cervical abnormalities.

Trend change of the transmission route of COVID-19-related symptoms in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: The Japanese prime minister declared a state of emergency on April 7 2020 to combat the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This declaration was unique in the sense that it was essentially driven by the voluntary restraint of the residents. We examined the change of the infection route by investigating contact experiences with COVID-19-positive cases. STUDY DESIGN: This study is a population-level questionnaire-based study using a social networking service (SNS). METHODS: To assess the impact of the declaration, this study used population-level questionnaire data collected from an SNS with 121,375 respondents (between March 27 and May 5) to assess the change in transmission routes over the study period, which was measured by investigating the association between COVID-19-related symptoms and (self-reported) contact with COVID-19-infected individuals. RESULTS: The results of this study show that the declaration prevented infections in the workplace, but increased domestic infections as people stayed at home. However, after April 24, workplace infections started to increase again, driven by the increase in community-acquired infections. CONCLUSIONS: While careful interpretation is necessary because our data are self-reported from voluntary SNS users, these findings indicate the impact of the declaration on the change in transmission routes of COVID-19 over time in Japan.

[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].

Objective: The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Methods: The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0). Results: Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95%CI: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusions: In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.